Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
8-2 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
3–2
Hubert Hurkacz
(5 last)
- 03 Jul1-3 19-24L
- 15 May2-0 13-9W
- 16 May2-1 16-14W
- 13 Mar2-1 16-12W
- 03 Nov0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1536 · Hubert Hurkacz 1550
| Tommy Paul | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 14.6 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 3–2 Hubert Hurkacz (5).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.7 | 16.5-12.9 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 14.6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 83% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.8
Over 24.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Tommy Paul 3 – 2 Hubert Hurkacz (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 3–2 Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 15/05/25 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/05/24 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/03/23 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/11/21 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 53% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.