Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
7-3 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1527 · Jakub Mensik 1514
| Mattia Bellucci | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15-13.2 | 16.1-16 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 76.9% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 30.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +6.7
Over 21.5: 88% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 12% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 10/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-24 | L |
| 30/06 | Toby Samuel Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 65% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.