Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata
Team pages: Luciano Darderi · Rinky Hijikata
Prediction summary
Winner
Luciano Darderi
Rinky Hijikata
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luciano Darderi
5-5 (W-L)
Rinky Hijikata
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luciano Darderi
2–1
Rinky Hijikata
(3 last)
- 08 Mar1-2 12-16L
- 24 Aug3-0 18-5W
- 28 May3-0 19-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luciano Darderi 1555 · Rinky Hijikata 1495
| Luciano Darderi | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luciano Darderi (rating 1555 vs 1495).
- Head-to-head: Luciano Darderi 2–1 Rinky Hijikata (3).
Statistics
| Luciano Darderi | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-11.4 | 13.8-14.4 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.6
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.90
H2H · Luciano Darderi 2 – 1 Rinky Hijikata (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luciano Darderi 2–1 Rinky Hijikata
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/08/25 US Open | 3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 28/05/24 French Open | 3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Rinky Hijikata
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/08 | Jaume Munar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/06 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-27 | L |
| 19/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Dino Prizmic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata?
Our model gives 61% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.