Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Team pages: Mark Lajal · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Mark Lajal
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mark Lajal
6-4 (W-L)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mark Lajal 1586 · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1491
| Mark Lajal | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mark Lajal (rating 1586 vs 1491).
- Mark Lajal dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Mark Lajal is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Mark Lajal makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Mark Lajal | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.7 | 11.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mark Lajal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Zdenek Kolar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo?
Our model gives 56% to Mark Lajal, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.