Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Adam Walton · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1508 · Nicolas Mejia 1560
| Adam Walton | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1508 vs 1560).
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.6 | 14-11.5 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Justin Boulais ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 12/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 11/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 54% to Adam Walton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.