Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini
Team pages: Titouan Droguet · Matteo Berrettini
Prediction summary
Winner
Titouan Droguet
Matteo Berrettini
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Titouan Droguet
7-3 (W-L)
Matteo Berrettini
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Titouan Droguet 1555 · Matteo Berrettini 1561
| Titouan Droguet | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Titouan Droguet dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Matteo Berrettini dominates on serve: 12.5 aces and 41.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Titouan Droguet | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 2.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.3 | 20.1-17.8 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 12.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 78.3% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 41.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.1
Over 22.5: 77% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 23% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Titouan Droguet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Arthur Rinderknech French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Marton Fucsovics French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model gives 58% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.