Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Jan-Lennard Struff · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan-Lennard Struff
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
27.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan-Lennard Struff
4-6 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan-Lennard Struff 1529 · Alejandro Tabilo 1477
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan-Lennard Struff (rating 1529 vs 1477).
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 14.2 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.6 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.7-17.7 | 13-14.6 |
| Aces | 14.2 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 32.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.8
Over 22.5: 80% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 20% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 04/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Lautaro Midon ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 23/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 53% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.