Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Jodar
0–1
Denis Shapovalov
(1 last)
- 11 Feb0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1584 · Denis Shapovalov 1562
| Rafael Jodar | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Rafael Jodar 0–1 Denis Shapovalov (1).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-9.8 | 12.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.90
H2H · Rafael Jodar 0 – 1 Denis Shapovalov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Jodar 0–1 Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 ATP Dallas | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 65% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.