Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Cameron Norrie
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Cameron Norrie
Estimated games
27.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Cameron Norrie
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
7–0
Cameron Norrie
(7 last)
- 23 Jan3-1 23-15W
- 06 Jul3-0 19-14W
- 22 Jan3-2 27-26W
- 25 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 02 Jan2-0 13-7W
- 07 Aug2-0 13-10W
- 02 Mar2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1601 · Cameron Norrie 1561
| Alexander Zverev | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1601 vs 1561).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 13.9 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 7–0 Cameron Norrie (7).
- Note: Cameron Norrie makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.3-0.9 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.7-16.2 | 14.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 13.9 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.8
Over 21.5: 85% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 15% · 2.00
H2H · Alexander Zverev 7 – 0 Cameron Norrie (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 7–0 Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 06/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 22/01/24 Australian Open | 3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 25/10/23 ATP Vienna | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/01/22 ATP Cup | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08/19 ATP Montreal | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/03/19 ATP Acapulco | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 10/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 04/07 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Valentin Royer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Blockx Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 26-23 | W |
| 20/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 19/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-31 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie?
Our model gives 69% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.