Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
28.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
5-5 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1478 · Hubert Hurkacz 1547
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1478 vs 1547).
- Sho Shimabukuro dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Hubert Hurkacz makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-14.3 | 18.1-15.4 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 17.5 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 82.5% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +7
Over 21.5: 89% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 11% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-31 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 68% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.