Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Martin Landaluce · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Landaluce
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
29.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Landaluce
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Landaluce 1477 · Matteo Arnaldi 1512
| Martin Landaluce | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Martin Landaluce dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 9 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Note: Martin Landaluce makes many double faults (6.1/match).
- Note: Matteo Arnaldi makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Martin Landaluce | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 43% (7) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-14.2 | 17.4-18 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 9 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +5.9
Over 23.5: 85% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 15% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Landaluce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Jack Draper ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 15/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 08/06 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 30/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 52% to Matteo Arnaldi, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.