Tennis · WTA Toronto · 14/08, 00:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
6-4 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
7–3
Elena Rybakina
(10 last)
- 28 Jan0-2 6-13L
- 26 Dec2-0 12-6W
- 03 Nov1-2 7-15L
- 17 Aug2-0 13-8W
- 01 Jun2-1 14-14W
- 13 Feb2-0 13-7W
- 04 Jan2-0 13-10W
- 21 Dec1-0 6-3W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1584 · Elena Rybakina 1574
| Iga Swiatek | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 7–3 Elena Rybakina (10).
- Note: Iga Swiatek makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-8.5 | 13.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 76% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.6
Over 22.5: 46% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 54% · 1.80
H2H · Iga Swiatek 7 – 3 Elena Rybakina (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 7–3 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/12/25 Cup Matches | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/11/25 WTA Finals | 1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/08/25 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/06/25 French Open Women | 2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/02/25 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/01/25 United Cup Women | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/12/24 World Tennis League Women | 1-0 | 6-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Karolina Pliskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Taylor Townsend Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 31/05 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 53% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.