Tennis · WTA Toronto · 12/08, 18:30
Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Elina Svitolina · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Elina Svitolina
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elina Svitolina
4-6 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elina Svitolina
3–4
Iga Swiatek
(7 last)
- 14 May2-1 14-12W
- 12 Mar2-1 16-12W
- 03 Jun0-2 6-13L
- 25 Mar0-2 9-13L
- 21 Feb0-2 5-12L
- 11 Jul2-1 19-14W
- 15 May0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elina Svitolina 1583 · Iga Swiatek 1559
| Elina Svitolina | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elina Svitolina 3–4 Iga Swiatek (7).
- Note: Elina Svitolina makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Iga Swiatek makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Elina Svitolina | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.7 | 11.7-8.1 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.1
Over 20.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Elina Svitolina 3 – 4 Iga Swiatek (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elina Svitolina 3–4 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 WTA Rome | 2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/06/25 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/03/25 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/02/24 WTA Dubai | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/07/23 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 15/05/21 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Daria Snigur Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Eva Lys WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Karolina Pliskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Taylor Townsend Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 31/05 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 58% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.