Tennis · WTA Toronto · 13/08, 02:30
Prediction: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Coco Gauff · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Coco Gauff
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Coco Gauff
7-3 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coco Gauff 1581 · Elena Rybakina 1531
| Coco Gauff | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1581 vs 1531).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (5.3/match).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Coco Gauff | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-9.8 | 13.8-12 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2
Over 22.5: 64% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coco Gauff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Kayla Day WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Jessica Pegula Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 56% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.