Tennis · WTA Toronto · 11/08, 18:30
Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1579 · Elena Rybakina 1515
| Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1579 vs 1515).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 48.7% break avg.
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-7.8 | 13.4-12 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 54% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.