Tennis · ATP Montreal · 10/08, 18:00
Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Luciano Darderi · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Luciano Darderi
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luciano Darderi
5-5 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luciano Darderi
1–1
Brandon Nakashima
(2 last)
- 20 Oct0-2 7-13L
- 21 May2-1 19-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luciano Darderi 1547 · Brandon Nakashima 1582
| Luciano Darderi | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 12.2 aces and 51.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Luciano Darderi | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.2 | 16.6-14.5 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 12.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 81.1% |
| Break % | 36% | 51.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
H2H · Luciano Darderi 1 – 1 Brandon Nakashima (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luciano Darderi 1–1 Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/25 ATP Vienna | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05/25 ATP Hamburg | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luciano Darderi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 62% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.