Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 13/08, 18:30
Prediction: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Henrique Rocha · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Henrique Rocha
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Henrique Rocha
4-6 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Henrique Rocha
0–1
Nicolas Mejia
(1 last)
- 22 Jun1-2 13-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henrique Rocha 1480 · Nicolas Mejia 1593
| Henrique Rocha | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1480 vs 1593).
- Nicolas Mejia is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Henrique Rocha 0–1 Nicolas Mejia (1).
Statistics
| Henrique Rocha | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.3 | 13.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.83
H2H · Henrique Rocha 0 – 1 Nicolas Mejia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Henrique Rocha 0–1 Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 Wimbledon | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henrique Rocha
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 53% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.