Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 12/08, 20:30
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jeffrey John Wolf
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Jeffrey John Wolf
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Jeffrey John Wolf
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
6-4 (W-L)
Jeffrey John Wolf
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1511 · Jeffrey John Wolf 1615
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jeffrey John Wolf | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeffrey John Wolf (rating 1511 vs 1615).
- Sho Shimabukuro dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Jeffrey John Wolf dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 52.8% break avg.
- Jeffrey John Wolf is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jeffrey John Wolf | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-13.3 | 13.1-10.6 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jeffrey John Wolf
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/08 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 24/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Jeffrey John Wolf?
Our model gives 56% to Jeffrey John Wolf, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.