Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 12/08, 19:00
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Kei Nishikori
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Kei Nishikori
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Kei Nishikori
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
4-6 (W-L)
Kei Nishikori
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1471 · Kei Nishikori 1475
| Marco Trungelliti | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-13.3 | 10.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 5 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 6 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 22/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Kei Nishikori
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Thionville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Kei Nishikori?
Our model gives 54% to Kei Nishikori, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.