Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Juncheng Shang vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: Juncheng Shang · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Juncheng Shang
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juncheng Shang
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juncheng Shang
1–0
Lorenzo Sonego
(1 last)
- 08 Jan2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juncheng Shang 1473 · Lorenzo Sonego 1465
| Juncheng Shang | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Lorenzo Sonego dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Juncheng Shang 1–0 Lorenzo Sonego (1).
Statistics
| Juncheng Shang | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.2-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13.5 | 15.7-16.5 |
| Aces | 4 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 70% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.90
H2H · Juncheng Shang 1 – 0 Lorenzo Sonego (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juncheng Shang 1–0 Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/26 ATP Hong Kong | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juncheng Shang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Australian Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 19/01 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Australian Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 09/01 | Alexander Bublik ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/01 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juncheng Shang vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 53% to Juncheng Shang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.