Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1516 · Grigor Dimitrov 1535
| Sebastian Baez | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.5 | 15.7-15 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.8
Over 22.5: 75% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 25% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
| 30/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 57% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.