Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Aleksandar Kovacevic · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
27.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Kovacevic
2-8 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aleksandar Kovacevic
0–1
Karen Khachanov
(1 last)
- 17 Jan1-3 16-22L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1413 · Karen Khachanov 1497
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karen Khachanov (rating 1413 vs 1497).
- Karen Khachanov is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aleksandar Kovacevic 0–1 Karen Khachanov (1).
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 17% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-2 | 1.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-15.1 | 16.9-16.7 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 10.3 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 16.5% | 32.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5
Over 22.5: 81% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 19% · 1.72
H2H · Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 – 1 Karen Khachanov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aleksandar Kovacevic 0–1 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/24 Australian Open | 1-3 | 16-22 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 23/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Michael Mmoh ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Ignacio Buse ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Bublik Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 23-30 | L |
| 27/05 | Marco Trungelliti French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 67% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.