Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
26.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
4-6 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1521 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1530
| Tomas Machac | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-13.6 | 16.4-15.5 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.3
Over 22.5: 78% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 22% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/04 | Cameron Norrie ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 22/04 | Francisco Comesana ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Andrey Rublev ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Sebastian Baez ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 08/04 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/04 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 51% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.