Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1–0
Marin Cilic
(1 last)
- 19 Mar2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1573 · Marin Cilic 1469
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1573 vs 1469).
- Daniel Merida Aguilar is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Merida Aguilar 1–0 Marin Cilic (1).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-9.2 | 11.3-14.1 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 33.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 52% · 1.83
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1 – 0 Marin Cilic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1–0 Marin Cilic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/25 Challenger Murcia | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Marin Cilic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 09/05 | Martin Landaluce ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Marcos Giron ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 55% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.