Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Jesper De Jong
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Jesper De Jong
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Jesper De Jong
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Jesper De Jong
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1602 · Jesper De Jong 1521
| Alex Michelsen | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1602 vs 1521).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.1 | 13.7-13.5 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 47% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.5
Over 20.5: 78% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 22% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Rinky Hijikata Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 16/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Jesper De Jong?
Our model gives 71% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.