Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Zachary Svajda vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Zachary Svajda · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Zachary Svajda
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Zachary Svajda
3-7 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zachary Svajda 1486 · Mattia Bellucci 1509
| Zachary Svajda | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Zachary Svajda | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 43% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.9 | 13.9-13.2 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3
Over 22.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zachary Svajda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Stefan Kozlov ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-22 | W |
| 30/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 10/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Alex Bolt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zachary Svajda vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 54% to Zachary Svajda, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.