Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Martin Landaluce vs Jack Draper
Team pages: Martin Landaluce · Jack Draper
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Landaluce
Jack Draper
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Landaluce
3-7 (W-L)
Jack Draper
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Landaluce 1465 · Jack Draper 1522
| Martin Landaluce | Jack Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jack Draper (rating 1465 vs 1522).
- Martin Landaluce dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Jack Draper is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Martin Landaluce makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Martin Landaluce | Jack Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 43% (7) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-16.6 | 12-11.1 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 31.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.6
Over 21.5: 73% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 27% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Landaluce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 15/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 08/06 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 30-32 | L |
Jack Draper
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/03 | Reilly Opelka ATP Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/03 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/03 | Novak Djokovic ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/03 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/03 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Landaluce vs Jack Draper?
Our model gives 66% to Jack Draper, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.