Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski
Team pages: Thiago Agustin Tirante · Jan Choinski
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Jan Choinski
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Agustin Tirante
6-4 (W-L)
Jan Choinski
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1–2
Jan Choinski
(3 last)
- 07 Apr0-2 8-12L
- 01 Apr2-1 17-16W
- 02 Nov0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1542 · Jan Choinski 1636
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Jan Choinski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Choinski (rating 1542 vs 1636).
- Thiago Agustin Tirante dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 50.6% break avg.
- Jan Choinski is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Thiago Agustin Tirante 1–2 Jan Choinski (3).
- Note: Thiago Agustin Tirante makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Jan Choinski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.6 | 12.7-8.2 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.9
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.80
H2H · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1 – 2 Jan Choinski (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1–2 Jan Choinski
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/23 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/04/23 Challenger Mexico City | 2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 02/11/22 Challenger Guayaquil | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
Jan Choinski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Jamie Mackenzie Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski?
Our model gives 52% to Thiago Agustin Tirante, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.