Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mariano Navone vs Raphael Collignon
Team pages: Mariano Navone · Raphael Collignon
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariano Navone
Raphael Collignon
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mariano Navone
4-6 (W-L)
Raphael Collignon
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mariano Navone
1–0
Raphael Collignon
(1 last)
- 17 Nov2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariano Navone 1496 · Raphael Collignon 1505
| Mariano Navone | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mariano Navone 1–0 Raphael Collignon (1).
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Mariano Navone | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.7 | 12.6-15.4 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 27.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.9
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Mariano Navone 1 – 0 Raphael Collignon (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mariano Navone 1–0 Raphael Collignon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/20 M15 Sharm El Sheikh | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 21/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-22 | L |
Raphael Collignon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariano Navone vs Raphael Collignon?
Our model gives 54% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.