Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Team pages: Roman Andres Burruchaga · Jan-Lennard Struff
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Jan-Lennard Struff
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Andres Burruchaga
6-4 (W-L)
Jan-Lennard Struff
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Andres Burruchaga
0–1
Jan-Lennard Struff
(1 last)
- 28 May0-3 6-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Andres Burruchaga 1522 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1507
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 14.3 aces and 46.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Roman Andres Burruchaga 0–1 Jan-Lennard Struff (1).
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.2 | 15.6-17.8 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 14.3 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 51.9% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.9
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Roman Andres Burruchaga 0 – 1 Jan-Lennard Struff (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Andres Burruchaga 0–1 Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/24 French Open | 0-3 | 6-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Andres Burruchaga
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 24/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Marco Cecchinato ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-19 | L |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 53% to Jan-Lennard Struff, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.