Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 14/08, 17:00
Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
5-5 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Denis Shapovalov
2–1
Adrian Mannarino
(3 last)
- 31 Jul2-0 12-3W
- 26 Oct1-2 9-16L
- 12 Aug2-1 14-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1512 · Adrian Mannarino 1485
| Denis Shapovalov | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 6 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Denis Shapovalov 2–1 Adrian Mannarino (3).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.6 | 11.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 6 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 56.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.8
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Denis Shapovalov 2 – 1 Adrian Mannarino (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Denis Shapovalov 2–1 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/24 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/10/17 ATP Basel | 1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 12/08/17 ATP Montreal | 2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 58% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.