Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 12/08, 17:30
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Dusan Lajovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Dusan Lajovic
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
5-5 (W-L)
Dusan Lajovic
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Van Assche
2–1
Dusan Lajovic
(3 last)
- 13 Jul2-1 15-15W
- 19 Aug2-0 12-4W
- 04 Oct0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1607 · Dusan Lajovic 1534
| Luca Van Assche | Dusan Lajovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Van Assche (rating 1607 vs 1534).
- Head-to-head: Luca Van Assche 2–1 Dusan Lajovic (3).
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Dusan Lajovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-12.3 | 14.4-14.9 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 5 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 32.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4
Over 21.5: 76% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 24% · 1.90
H2H · Luca Van Assche 2 – 1 Dusan Lajovic (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Van Assche 2–1 Dusan Lajovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/26 ATP Umag | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 19/08/25 US Open | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10/22 Challenger Parma | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Gustavo Heide ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Dusan Lajovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 08/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 07/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 05/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 04/08 | James McCabe Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Vilius Gaubas Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-24 | L |
| 24/06 | Chris Rodesch Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Lukas Neumayer Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic?
Our model gives 65% to Luca Van Assche, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.