Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 12/08, 16:00
Prediction: Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day
Team pages: Yue Yuan · Kayla Day
Prediction summary
Winner
Yue Yuan
Kayla Day
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Yue Yuan
8-2 (W-L)
Kayla Day
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yue Yuan
2–1
Kayla Day
(3 last)
- 29 Mar0-2 5-12L
- 02 Jan2-1 19-14W
- 26 Oct2-1 15-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yue Yuan 1458 · Kayla Day 1534
| Yue Yuan | Kayla Day | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kayla Day (rating 1458 vs 1534).
- Kayla Day is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Yue Yuan 2–1 Kayla Day (3).
- Note: Kayla Day makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Yue Yuan | Kayla Day | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-13.8 | 12.2-10.6 |
| Aces | 7 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64.4% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 34.6% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Yue Yuan 2 – 1 Kayla Day (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yue Yuan 2–1 Kayla Day
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 WTA Charleston | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/01/24 WTA Auckland | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 26/10/22 ITF W80 Tyler | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yue Yuan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Warsaw · Hard |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 03/08 | Alana Smith WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Aliona Falei WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 18/05 | Harriet Dart French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 12/05 | Mayar Sherif WTA Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 14-12 | L |
Kayla Day
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Taylah Preston WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Diane Parry WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/08 | Hanyu Guo WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Madison Keys Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Katarzyna Kawa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Erika Andreeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Cadence Brace Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Mary Stoiana WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day?
Our model gives 60% to Kayla Day, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.