Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 20/08, 02:30
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Sara Bejlek
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Sara Bejlek
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Sara Bejlek
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1560 · Sara Bejlek 1555
| Aryna Sabalenka | Sara Bejlek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 48.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Sara Bejlek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.3 | 11.3-9 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Sara Bejlek
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 16/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Anna Blinkova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Clara Tauson WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek?
Our model gives 67% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.