Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 21/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys
Team pages: Sara Bejlek · Madison Keys
Prediction summary
Winner
Sara Bejlek
Madison Keys
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Sara Bejlek
6-4 (W-L)
Madison Keys
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sara Bejlek 1562 · Madison Keys 1548
| Sara Bejlek | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Madison Keys makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Sara Bejlek | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.6 | 12.6-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 35.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sara Bejlek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 16/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Anna Blinkova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Clara Tauson WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys?
Our model gives 61% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.