Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
8-2 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–6
Iga Swiatek
(10 last)
- 13 May0-2 3-12L
- 28 Jun2-0 13-9W
- 05 Sept2-0 12-6W
- 06 Nov0-2 1-12L
- 12 Aug2-1 18-13W
- 18 Feb0-2 3-12L
- 06 Jan2-0 12-4W
- 15 Oct1-2 10-16L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1578 · Iga Swiatek 1631
| Jessica Pegula | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1578 vs 1631).
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–6 Iga Swiatek (10).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.1 | 12.4-6.5 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 56.6% | 55.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 6 Iga Swiatek (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–6 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/06/25 WTA Bad Homburg | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09/24 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/11/23 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/08/23 WTA Montreal | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/02/23 WTA Doha | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/01/23 United Cup Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/10/22 WTA San Diego | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 62% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.