Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 12/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Christopher O'Connell
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Christopher O'Connell
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Christopher O'Connell
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Shevchenko
0–1
Christopher O'Connell
(1 last)
- 10 Jan0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1501 · Christopher O'Connell 1564
| Alexander Shevchenko | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Christopher O'Connell (rating 1501 vs 1564).
- Christopher O'Connell is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko 0–1 Christopher O'Connell (1).
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (2) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-13 | 12.7-12 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 35.8% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 1 Christopher O'Connell (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Shevchenko 0–1 Christopher O'Connell
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/24 ATP Adelaide | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 18/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/07 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Christopher O'Connell
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 03/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell?
Our model gives 55% to Christopher O'Connell, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.