Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 12/08, 03:40
Prediction: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Jeffrey John Wolf · Shintaro Mochizuki
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Prediction summary
Winner
Jeffrey John Wolf
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jeffrey John Wolf
7-3 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jeffrey John Wolf
2–0
Shintaro Mochizuki
(2 last)
- 13 Jul2-0 13-9W
- 26 Oct2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jeffrey John Wolf 1596 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1524
| Jeffrey John Wolf | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeffrey John Wolf (rating 1596 vs 1524).
- Jeffrey John Wolf dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 53.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jeffrey John Wolf 2–0 Shintaro Mochizuki (2).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Jeffrey John Wolf | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.3 | 11.8-13.4 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.3% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 53.8% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Jeffrey John Wolf 2 – 0 Shintaro Mochizuki (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jeffrey John Wolf 2–0 Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/22 Challenger Rome GA | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/10/21 Challenger Las Vegas | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jeffrey John Wolf
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 24/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jeffrey John Wolf vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 59% to Jeffrey John Wolf, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.