Tennis · Challenger Astana · 13/08, 07:00
Prediction: Sergey Fomin vs Kasidit Samrej
Team pages: Sergey Fomin · Kasidit Samrej
Prediction summary
Winner
Sergey Fomin
Kasidit Samrej
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sergey Fomin
6-4 (W-L)
Kasidit Samrej
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sergey Fomin 1479 · Kasidit Samrej 1531
| Sergey Fomin | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kasidit Samrej (rating 1479 vs 1531).
- Note: Sergey Fomin makes many double faults (5.6/match).
- Note: Kasidit Samrej makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Sergey Fomin | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.5 | 13.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 76% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sergey Fomin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Alberto Lim Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Bill Chan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Mircea-Alexandru Jecan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Kasidit Samrej
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Kokoro Isomura Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Egor Pleshivtsev M15 Astana |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Astana |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Yu Tanaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Alberto Lim M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sergey Fomin vs Kasidit Samrej?
Our model gives 54% to Sergey Fomin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.