Tennis · Challenger Astana · 12/08, 09:30
Prediction: Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin
Team pages: Fajing Sun · Semen Pankin
Prediction summary
Winner
Fajing Sun
Semen Pankin
Estimated games
20.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Fajing Sun
3-7 (W-L)
Semen Pankin
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Fajing Sun
1–0
Semen Pankin
(1 last)
- 03 Aug2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fajing Sun 1455 · Semen Pankin 1509
| Fajing Sun | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Semen Pankin (rating 1455 vs 1509).
- Semen Pankin is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Fajing Sun 1–0 Semen Pankin (1).
Statistics
| Fajing Sun | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-10.4 | 11.3-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.1
Over 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 58% · 1.83
H2H · Fajing Sun 1 – 0 Semen Pankin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fajing Sun 1–0 Semen Pankin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Challenger Istanbul | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fajing Sun
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Zangar Nurlanuly Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dakotah Bobo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Semen Pankin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Dominik Palan Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Togan Tokac Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Sebastiano Cocola M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Marko Bekeni M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin?
Our model gives 55% to Fajing Sun, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.