Tennis · Challenger Astana · 12/08, 07:00
Prediction: Takuya Kumasaka vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Takuya Kumasaka · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Takuya Kumasaka
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Takuya Kumasaka
6-4 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Takuya Kumasaka
2–0
Hayato Matsuoka
(2 last)
- 03 Nov2-1 18-14W
- 24 Nov2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Takuya Kumasaka 1511 · Hayato Matsuoka 1520
| Takuya Kumasaka | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Takuya Kumasaka 2–0 Hayato Matsuoka (2).
Statistics
| Takuya Kumasaka | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.6 | 11.1-9.5 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 32% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 20.5
Over 20.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 48% · 1.83
H2H · Takuya Kumasaka 2 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Takuya Kumasaka 2–0 Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/25 Challenger Matsuyama | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/11/23 ITF M15 Ipoh Perak | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Takuya Kumasaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Florent Bax Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 20/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Asier Meneses Perny Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/07 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Robin Bertrand M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Alvaro Jimenez M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Takuya Kumasaka vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 63% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.