Tennis · Challenger Brownsburg · 11/08, 20:30
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Edward Winter
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Edward Winter
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Edward Winter
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Edward Winter
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1588 · Edward Winter 1516
| Bernard Tomic | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1588 vs 1516).
- Bernard Tomic dominates on serve: 7 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Bernard Tomic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.5 | 11.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 7 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Gavin Young Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08 | Dominick Mosejczuk Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Moise Kouame ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/07 | Soonwoo Kwon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Josh Sheehy Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Edward Winter?
Our model gives 65% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.