Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 22:30
Prediction: Mark Lajal vs Dalibor Svrcina
Team pages: Mark Lajal · Dalibor Svrcina
Prediction summary
Winner
Mark Lajal
Dalibor Svrcina
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mark Lajal
7-3 (W-L)
Dalibor Svrcina
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mark Lajal 1579 · Dalibor Svrcina 1478
| Mark Lajal | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mark Lajal (rating 1579 vs 1478).
- Mark Lajal is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Mark Lajal makes many double faults (4.9/match).
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Mark Lajal | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11 | 12.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 57.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 51% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mark Lajal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/07 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Adam Walton ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 19/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mark Lajal vs Dalibor Svrcina?
Our model gives 54% to Mark Lajal, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.