Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 21:00
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Titouan Droguet
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Titouan Droguet
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Titouan Droguet
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
4-6 (W-L)
Titouan Droguet
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1444 · Titouan Droguet 1540
| Alexei Popyrin | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Titouan Droguet (rating 1444 vs 1540).
- Titouan Droguet is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-13.5 | 11.5-12.1 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 22.1% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Taylor Fritz ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Titouan Droguet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Titouan Droguet?
Our model gives 54% to Titouan Droguet, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.