Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 21:00
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hugo Gaston
1–1
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
(2 last)
- 10 Oct2-1 15-11W
- 23 Sept0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1544 · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 1420
| Hugo Gaston | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Gaston (rating 1544 vs 1420).
- Hugo Gaston is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.6-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.8 | 10.5-13.4 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 26.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.1
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Hugo Gaston 1 – 1 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hugo Gaston 1–1 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/25 Challenger Roanne | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 23/09/25 Challenger Orleans | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Matej Dodig Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Tom Gentzsch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?
Our model gives 58% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.