Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 21:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Dellien
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Hugo Dellien
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Hugo Dellien
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
6-4 (W-L)
Hugo Dellien
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1497 · Hugo Dellien 1565
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Dellien (rating 1497 vs 1565).
- Sho Shimabukuro dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 50.1% break avg.
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-13.8 | 13.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.8
Over 20.5: 75% · 2.00
Under 20.5: 25% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Hugo Dellien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Pedro Martinez Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Laslo Djere ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Michele Ribecai ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/07 | Matyas Fuele Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 17-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Matej Dodig Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/07 | Henry Bernet Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/07 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Dellien?
Our model gives 65% to Sho Shimabukuro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.