Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Michael Zheng
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Michael Zheng
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Michael Zheng
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
3-7 (W-L)
Michael Zheng
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1450 · Michael Zheng 1530
| Moez Echargui | Michael Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Michael Zheng (rating 1450 vs 1530).
- Michael Zheng is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Michael Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13.9 | 13.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.4
Over 19.5: 78% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 22% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Jordan Lee ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Keegan Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Edas Butvilas Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/06 | Jaime Faria Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Michael Zheng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Martin Landaluce ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 01/07 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Michael Zheng?
Our model gives 73% to Michael Zheng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.