Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 18:00
Prediction: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Trevor Svajda
Team pages: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · Trevor Svajda
Prediction summary
Winner
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Trevor Svajda
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
7-3 (W-L)
Trevor Svajda
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 1472 · Trevor Svajda 1541
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Trevor Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trevor Svajda (rating 1472 vs 1541).
- Trevor Svajda is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Trevor Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-15 | 12.6-9.7 |
| Aces | 17.6 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.4% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 32.7% | 40.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 16/06 | Corentin Moutet ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 14/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Johannus Monday ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Roman Safiullin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 18/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Trevor Svajda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Eli Stephenson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Elias Ymer ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Aidan Kim M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/07 | Evan Zhu M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Matthew Forbes M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Andreja Petrovic M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Trevor Svajda?
Our model gives 57% to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.