Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Kei Nishikori vs Francisco Comesana
Team pages: Kei Nishikori · Francisco Comesana
Prediction summary
Winner
Kei Nishikori
Francisco Comesana
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kei Nishikori
4-6 (W-L)
Francisco Comesana
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kei Nishikori 1483 · Francisco Comesana 1536
| Kei Nishikori | Francisco Comesana | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francisco Comesana (rating 1483 vs 1536).
- Note: Francisco Comesana makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Kei Nishikori | Francisco Comesana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.2 | 17.3-15.4 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.4
Over 22.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 34% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kei Nishikori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Thionville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Francisco Comesana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 30-31 | L |
| 28/05 | Luciano Darderi French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-26 | W |
| 26/05 | Ethan Quinn French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Jaume Munar ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Valentin Royer ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 17/05 | Max Hans Rehberg ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kei Nishikori vs Francisco Comesana?
Our model gives 57% to Francisco Comesana, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.