Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Sebastian Ofner
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Sebastian Ofner
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Sebastian Ofner
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Ofner
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marco Trungelliti
1–0
Sebastian Ofner
(1 last)
- 28 Apr2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1482 · Sebastian Ofner 1471
| Marco Trungelliti | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Sebastian Ofner dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 43.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Sebastian Ofner (1).
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (5.7/match).
- Note: Sebastian Ofner makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-13.6 | 13.2-14.1 |
| Aces | 5 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 38.5% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.8
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.90
H2H · Marco Trungelliti 1 – 0 Sebastian Ofner (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/18 ATP Istanbul Qual | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 22/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 52% to Sebastian Ofner, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.